(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland)
June 16-22, 2012 Thoughts:
The June 16-22 period is likely to feature widespread warmth. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that an unseasonably hot air mass could be heading eastward toward the end of the period, setting the stage for a hot final week of the month in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions.
The chart below is as follows:
The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -0.2°C to +0.5°C, a PNA of -1.25 to -0.25, and an AO of -0.50 to +0.50 for North America.
Taking into consideration the ensemble guidance, NAEFS, and CFSv2, I suspect that there will be more warmth than what the teleconnection analogs suggest.
My thoughts are as follows:
– Cool along the West Coast of the U.S.
– Generally warmer than normal across Canada and Alaska
– Warmer than normal across the remainder of the U.S. with the warmest anomalies in the Plains States.