{"id":9291,"date":"2016-02-17T20:00:43","date_gmt":"2016-02-18T01:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=9291"},"modified":"2016-02-17T23:10:40","modified_gmt":"2016-02-18T04:10:40","slug":"winter-weather-tracker-1221-1415","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2016\/02\/17\/winter-weather-tracker-1221-1415\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter Weather Tracker (2\/17 – 3\/4\/16)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally got the dashboard updated below. \u00a0The format was cleaned up. \u00a0The theme from looking over the data is that once we get passed this week, the week of February 22nd and into the first week of March look to favor more winter weather threats. \u00a0Basically, this means the potential is there for East Coast Winter Storms. \u00a0Way too early to get into details, especially for the system on the 24\/25 timeframe, especially how much snow expected, how cold will it be. The big picture is that a low will develop over the Southeastern US and move up the coast. \u00a0Definitely interesting times ahead for sure. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Telleconnection Indice Dashboard Forecast
\nThursday, February 18th through Monday, February 22nd
\n(1 to 6 Outlook)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPacific Region<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Basics –\u00a0Click here
\n<\/a>Australian Site click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Favorable<\/a>, Not Favorable<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Not Favorable
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		Not Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAtlantic Region<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MJO Composites – Click here<\/a><\/strong>
\n (Check out Kyle MacRitchie Website<\/a>)<\/strong>
\n and here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Not Favorable
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		Not Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nNot Favorable
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Model Ensembles
\nGFS (GEFS) vs European (ECMWF)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
Mon, Feb 17 – Mon, Feb 22<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Monday, February 17th<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Monday, February 22nd\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

Surface Temperatures<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

850mb Temperatures<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

850mb Temperatures<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0Mon, Feb 17 – Mon, Feb 22<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\nMonday, February 17th<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0Monday, February 22nd<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary:\u00a0<\/strong>For this forecast period, not expecting much in the way of any winter weather. \u00a0Basically, the upper air pattern based up on the indices and model ensembles seems to favor a gradual building of the ridge over the Western US and a trough over the Eastern US. \u00a0The main theme for this period will be a quiet one and not expecting much in the way of any major storms, especially for winter weather. \u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 Telleconnection Indice Dashboard Forecast
\nTuesday, February 23rd through Sunday, February 28th
\n(6 to 10 Outlook)<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPacific Region<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Basics –\u00a0Click here
\n<\/a>Australian Site click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Favorable<\/a>, Not Favorable<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Not Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAtlantic Region<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MJO Composites – Click here<\/a><\/strong>
\n(Check out Kyle MacRitchie Website<\/a>)<\/strong>
\nand here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Not\u00a0Favorable<\/strong><\/td>\nNot Favorable<\/strong><\/td>\nNot Favorable<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Model Ensemble Comparison Maps
\nGFS (GEFS) vs European (ECMWF)
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GFS 500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

ECMWF 500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

ECMWF 500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
Mon, Feb 22 – Sat, Feb \u00a027<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
Monday, February 22nd\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0Saturday, February 27th<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GFS Surface Temperatures<\/span><\/strong><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

ECMWF 850mb Temperatures<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

ECMWF 850mb Temperatures<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0Mon, Feb 22 – Sat, Feb \u00a027<\/strong><\/td>\nMonday, February 22nd\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0Saturday, February 27th<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary:\u00a0<\/strong>This forecast period bears watching. \u00a0Based upon the indices and model ensembles, an upper air pattern that favors Western US ridging, which looks to be very significant and downstream to the Eastern US, a deep trough. \u00a0Model guidance has been indicating the potential for a significant storm to develop along the East Coast. \u00a0The signal is there for a significant storm. \u00a0The period looks to be from the 23rd to the 25th. The GFS has been favoring a warm solution, meaning a storm that brings more rain versus snow whereas the European model favors a potential winter storm. \u00a0The one item is the Western Based NAO. \u00a0This indice looks to remain positive, so there the storm could track inland versus offshore. \u00a0For now, its a period that favors a significant storm. \u00a0Definitely stay tune. One additional note, colder temperatures are likely for this period, so it certainly will feel more like winter again.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span>Telleconnection Indice Dashboard Forecast
\nMonday, February 29th through Saturday, March 5th
\n(10 to 15 Day Outlook)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPacific Region<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Basics –\u00a0Click here
\n<\/a>Australian Site click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Favorable<\/a>, Not Favorable<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Not Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAtlantic Region<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Test\"<\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/strong><\/td>\n\"Test\"<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MJO Composites – Click here<\/a><\/strong>
\n(Check out Kyle MacRitchie Website<\/a>)<\/strong>
\nand here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nFavorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nNot Favorable<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Model Ensemble Comparison Maps
\nGFS (GEFS) vs Canadian (GEMS)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GEFS 500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GEMS 500mb Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0Saturday, February 27 through Thursday, March 3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GEFS Surface Temperature\u00a0
Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
\n

\"\"<\/a>

GEMS Surface Temperature\u00a0
Anomaly Map<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/p><\/div><\/td>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Saturday, February 27 through Thursday, March 3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary:\u00a0<\/strong>For this forecast period,\u00a0based upon the indices and model ensembles, we have a well established West Coast ridge and an Eastern US trough. \u00a0This period favors some potential for the development of East Coast lows, which may indicate winter storms. \u00a0Definitely a period that favors more winter weather. \u00a0Temperatures look to be below average for this period. \u00a0The one indice for the Atlantic, which is the Western Based NAO, may finally approach neutral or even negative during this period. The same for the MJO phase as well. \u00a0So, this period is one that could deliver more winter type weather. \u00a0Definitely stay tune. \u00a0So, thats pretty much it. \u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Background Info<\/strong><\/span>
\nOne additional point and worth mentioning, this experimental forecast product is focused for the Eastern US. \u00a0Right now, I’m going to focus on the Philadelphia Area for now, but you can apply this elsewhere such as the Middle Atlantic and Northeast US. \u00a0Just wanted to make sure everyone is on the same page.\u00a0<\/span>
\nI’m introducing a new blog that will be focused on identifying future winter weather patterns (i.e., winter storms). One of the things I’ve really gotten interested in using is telleconnection forecasting. Basically, it consists of indices that involve whether ridging will take place over the Western US, arctic air available for the Eastern US to blocking over Greenland. \u00a0Its these factors that hold the key on whether a weather pattern is favorable for winter weather.<\/span>One of the excellent long range forecasters I’ve been following for a while is Dave Toleris<\/a>. \u00a0If you want to learn how all this works, I highly recommend anyone to check out his thoughts on long range weather forecasting. \u00a0The past year or so, he updated his website. \u00a0He’s developed a section on his website on Snowstorms. \u00a0Its what he developed that got me thinking. \u00a0The table he put together is called North American Telleconnection Pattern Index or N.A.T.P.I<\/a>. \u00a0Its a great way to see if a weather pattern will be favorable for winter weather.<\/span>So, let’s get started. \u00a0Each table will provide a speedometer like scale showing you the state of El Nino or La Nina, Pacific and Atlantic state, and MJO. \u00a0I’ve made sure to spell what these are and further background in hyperlinks. \u00a0I’ll provide a summary statement on whether a forecast period is favorable for winter weather. \u00a0I’ll be using model data from American Weather and Weatherbell, which includes ensemble model solutions (GEFS, EPS, etc). \u00a0<\/span>One final point, as a forecaster, you need to understand how the pattern will evolve and not rush to judgement based on a certain model run. \u00a0Its very important to see how things are trending versus a model run that shows a winter storm, when the weather pattern doesn’t support that model solution. \u00a0<\/span>So, thats a brief overview. \u00a0If you have any questions, please provide a comment and I’ll be happy to answer your question. \u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Winter Weather Tracker is back !!!! Just in time for what looks to be active times again as we head into the final week of February and into the first week of March. Looks like the telleconnection indices and model guidance are hinting toward a favorable pattern for more winter weather. <\/p>\n

Click here for more details. <\/p>

Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[116],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-written-blogs-february-2016","item-wrap"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/EZWX_WinterWeatherTracker_Small.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9291"}],"version-history":[{"count":77,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10023,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9291\/revisions\/10023"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}