{"id":8986,"date":"2018-01-07T16:00:10","date_gmt":"2018-01-07T21:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=8986"},"modified":"2018-01-07T22:23:19","modified_gmt":"2018-01-08T03:23:19","slug":"winter-weather-trackers-telleconnections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2018\/01\/07\/winter-weather-trackers-telleconnections\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter Weather Tracker – Telleconnection Dashboard (12\/27 – 1\/10\/18)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hi Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n

Just got done updating this blog.\u00a0 So far based on analyzing these telleconnection indices, the 5 day period may be our best shot for snowfall and cold, but once we get into the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 time frame, which brings us to January 10th, the pattern from the very cold could transition into a warmer than average.\u00a0 It appears the signals for wintry weather will be going against that idea.\u00a0 So, thats a brief overview of the forecast right now.\u00a0 Typically La Nina seasons, you just don’t get the big winter storms.\u00a0 This cold spell we’re seeing may end up with not much snowfall. So far, all the of the model runs haven’t quite showed a consistent threat for snowfall.\u00a0 So, thats the latest at this hour. I’ll update this blog Thursday afternoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Previous Announcement: I’m introducing a new blog that will be focused on identifying future winter weather patterns (i.e., winter storms) for Eastern US.<\/span><\/p>\n

I wanted share with a sneak peak.\u00a0 Right now, it looks like I’ll be updating this blog on Mondays, since its more a longer term pattern outlook.\u00a0 Some other forecast products will get updated more frequently, but this one will be issued like once a week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the things I’ve really gotten interested in using is telleconnection forecasting. Basically, it consists of indices that involve whether ridging will take place over the Western US, arctic air available for the Eastern US to blocking over Greenland. \u00a0Its these factors that hold the key on whether a weather pattern is favorable for winter weather.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the excellent long range forecasters I’ve been following for a while is Dave Toleris<\/a>. \u00a0If you want to learn how all this works, I highly recommend anyone to check out his thoughts on long range weather forecasting. \u00a0The past year or so, he updated his website. \u00a0He’s developed a section on his website on Snowstorms. \u00a0Its what he developed that got me thinking. \u00a0The table he put together is called North American Telleconnection Pattern Index or N.A.T.P.I<\/a>. \u00a0Its a great way to see if a weather pattern will be favorable for winter weather.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, let’s get started. \u00a0Each table will provide a speedometer like scale showing you the state of El Nino or La Nina, Pacific and Atlantic state, and MJO. \u00a0I’ve made sure to spell what these are and further background in hyperlinks. \u00a0I’ll provide a summary statement on whether a forecast period is favorable for winter weather. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

One final point, as a forecaster, you need to understand how the pattern will evolve and not rush to judgement based on a certain model run. \u00a0Its very important to see how things are trending versus a model run that shows a winter storm, when the weather pattern doesn’t support that model solution. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So, thats a brief overview. \u00a0If you have any questions, please provide a comment and I’ll be happy to answer your question. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u200b<\/p>\n

\u200b<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Telleconnection Indice Dashboard Forecast
\n<\/strong>Wednesday, December 27<\/span>th<\/sup> through Sunday, December 31st<\/sup><\/span>
\n (1 to 5 Day Outlook)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nPacific Region<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Basics –\u00a0Click here
\n<\/a>Australian Site click here<\/a><\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Negative EPO<\/a>, Positive EPO<\/a><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\nAtlantic Region<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MJO Composites – Click here<\/a>
\n(Check out Kyle MacRitchie Website<\/a>)<\/td>\n		Basics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/td>\nBasics –\u00a0Click here<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Projected Upper Air Pattern<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\"Negative<\/a><\/td>\n\"Negative<\/a><\/td>\n\"Positive<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Negative AO<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nNegative West Based NAO<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nNegative PNA<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n\"La<\/a><\/td>\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Negative EPO<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0MJO Phase 8\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
The AO, NAO, PNA upper air composites are provided by the State Climate Office of North Carolina<\/a>. The upper air composites for EPO are provided by SnowBrains<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Summary<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n