{"id":7568,"date":"2015-04-19T23:00:51","date_gmt":"2015-04-20T03:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=7568"},"modified":"2015-04-19T23:25:19","modified_gmt":"2015-04-20T03:25:19","slug":"philadelphia-area-weather-threat-assessment-forecast-420-5415","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2015\/04\/19\/philadelphia-area-weather-threat-assessment-forecast-420-5415\/","title":{"rendered":"Philadelphia Area Weather Threat Assessment Forecast (4\/20 &#8211; 5\/4\/15)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Good Evening Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">I&#8217;m a bit short on time, so my written discussions will be brief. \u00a0Right now, Monday is looking to be the the most active. \u00a0Excessive rainfall and a round of severe weather possible on Monday. \u00a0Heavy rainfall likely late tonight into the first half of Monday, followed by the threat of severe weather Monday evening. \u00a0Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region in slight risk category. \u00a0Beyond Monday, we turn chilly temperature wise and less stormy. \u00a0The one item to keep a close eye on and that is if you have any\u00a0plants and vegetation as temperatures could drop to near freezing levels later in the week and into the following week. \u00a0So, keep an eye on the forecast.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">For official outlooks, please check\u00a0out the following links<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">&#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/briefing\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Daily Weather Briefing<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">&#8211; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/US.NationalWeatherService.PHI.gov?sk=wall\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/US.NationalWeatherService.PHI.gov?sk=wall\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NJ Facebook<br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/strong>&#8211;\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a><\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">,<\/span><\/a><\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u00a0NJ Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Weather Threat Assessment\u00a0Forecast<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Monday, April 20th through Monday, May 4th<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Issued: Sunday Evening, April\u00a019th \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">5 Day Period (Monday, April 20th through Friday, April 24th)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><br \/>\n<em><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/1_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-7587\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/1_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"1_WTAF_5-15 Day_PHL_20150420\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-7588\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"2_WTAF_5-15 Day_PHL_20150420\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/3_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-7589\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/3_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"3_WTAF_5-15 Day_PHL_20150420\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under &#8220;Background Information&#8221;. \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The most active day will be the first day of this period. \u00a0A round of heavy rainfall and perhaps some severe weather on Monday. \u00a0Beyond this day, cooler than average temperatures likely rest of period.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">New trough will be begin to overtake the Eastern US. \u00a0A warm front will bring in the heavy rain late tonight into the first half of Monday. \u00a0Rainfall amounts about 2 inches for the entire area. \u00a0Then a break in the action. \u00a0A cold front will move the region early Tuesday morning. Then cooler than average temperatures likely for the rest of this period. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Two threats right now is the excessive rainfall and severe weather. \u00a0Right now, the region will experience some heavy rainfall late Sunday night into mid morning Monday. \u00a0Most of the model guidance indicates about 1.50 inches. \u00a0I&#8217;m thinking this will be a minor excessive rainfall event. Some minor flooding expected, but nothing major. \u00a0But the heavy rain will impact the morning commute and air travel. \u00a0So, thats the biggest impact. \u00a0Then the severe weather threat possible late Monday afternoon\/evening. \u00a0\u00a0A cold front will approach from the west and move through the region early Tuesday morning. \u00a0Right now, I don&#8217;t expect this to be significant at this time, but a minor event. \u00a0I don&#8217;t think there will be a lot of locations will get hit with damaging winds and large hail. \u00a0Now, the Storm Prediction Center has the region under slight risk. \u00a0Basically, this threat category states &#8220;means short-lived and or\/ not widespread, isolated intense storms possible. \u00a0Winds 40 to 60 mph, Hail up to 1&#8221; and low tornado risk. \u00a0I think the\u00a0majority of the threat will likely be some gusty winds to 50 mph, pea size hail and some very heavy rainfall. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">6 to 10 Day Period (Saturday, April 25th through Wednesday, April 29th)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/4_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-7590\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/4_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"4_WTAF_5-15 Day_PHL_20150420\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under\u00a0<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">&#8220;Background Information&#8221;. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This period will be a chilly one, but no major storms in this period. \u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The upper air pattern will feature a trough over the Eastern US. \u00a0This basically means colder than average temperatures likely. \u00a0Precipitation should be near average. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">For this period, I&#8217;m not forecasting any weather threats. \u00a0The one item I to be concern with is potential for frost\/freeze conditions. \u00a0Temperatures may get down to freezing, so this could impact plants and vegetation. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">8 to 14 Day Period (Thursday, April 30th through Monday, May\u00a04th)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/5_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-7591\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/5_WTAF_5-15-Day_PHL_20150420-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"5_WTAF_5-15 Day_PHL_20150420\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under &#8220;Background Information&#8221;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This period will be similar, but moderation likely, meaning warmer temperatures in this period. \u00a0The pattern should be quiet.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The upper air pattern will feature a trough exiting the Eastern US and being replaced with some ridging aloft toward the end of this period. \u00a0Basically, we should see temperatures to slowly moderate at the end. \u00a0I&#8217;m still going with below average temperatures, but should be the first half of the period, followed by near average temperatures. \u00a0Precipitation should be near average. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Right now, no weather threats are being forecasted. \u00a0There may be a period where overnight temperatures could drop to freezing, which means some frost and freeze conditions could be possible. So, this could impact\u00a0plants and vegetation.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 36pt;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">X<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">************************************************************************************************************************************************<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Background Information<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">I am very excited to provide a new forecast product for the Philadelphia Area, which includes Southeastern Pennsylvania, South Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. \u00a0In here will be a new experimental product that I&#8217;ve produced for the Philadelphia Area. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Right now, I like to issue this product once a week, especially on Sundays. If time permits, I&#8217;ll issue a new forecast during the week.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This forecast will aide pretty much everyone from Public, Emergency Management, SKYWARN, and RACES. The idea is to provide everyone with a forecast that gives them the needed lead time to prepare for significant hazardous.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Finally, below is further background on my forecast tables and geographic locations<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Table Legend<\/span><\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_CF_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Forecaster Confidence<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Severity Event Index<\/strong>:\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-size: 12pt;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Minor_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Minor<\/a>, <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Significant_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Significant<\/a>, <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Major_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Major<\/a>, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-size: 12pt;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Extreme_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Extreme<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Forecast Geographic Locations<\/strong><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Southeast Pennsylvania<\/strong>: Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Philadelphia<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>South Jersey<\/strong>: Burlington, Ocean, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Northeastern\u00a0Maryland<\/strong>: Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne&#8217;s, Caroline, and Talbot<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Delaware<\/strong>: New Castle, Kent, and Sussex<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, The Weather Threat Assessment Forecast now online for the Philadelphia Area.  This forecast covers the April 20th to May 4th period.  So, we have Monday being the most active day for excessive rainfall, which may cause some minor flooding followed by some severe weather Monday evening.  Not expecting severe weather to be major, but a minor one.  Then a chillier type pattern takes over for the 6 to 10 and even in the 8 to 14 day period.  Some moderation finally expected by May 4th.  <\/p><p><a class=\"more-link btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2015\/04\/19\/philadelphia-area-weather-threat-assessment-forecast-420-5415\/\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-written-blog-apr-2015","item-wrap"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/EZWX-WTAF_Small.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7568"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7568\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7593,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7568\/revisions\/7593"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}