{"id":7533,"date":"2015-04-12T20:00:06","date_gmt":"2015-04-13T00:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=7533"},"modified":"2015-04-15T13:04:17","modified_gmt":"2015-04-15T17:04:17","slug":"wtaf-philadelphia-area-template-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2015\/04\/12\/wtaf-philadelphia-area-template-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Philadelphia Area Weather Threat Assessment Forecast (4\/13 &#8211; 4\/27\/15)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Good Evening Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Very excited to back into some weather forecasting. \u00a0So, I&#8217;m going to be expanding this forecast package that will include the Philadelphia. \u00a0This forecast will now include\u00a0Southeastern PA, Southern NJ, northeast Maryland and Delaware. As I mentioned a while back, this is an experimental forecast thats geared toward Threat Assessments. \u00a0The goal of this forecast is to identify any hazardous weather threats ahead of time, that needed lead time that allows everyone to prepare for them. \u00a0 So, anyone involved in\u00a0Emergency Management, SKYWARN, RACES and anyone else, this product will help you get that much needed lead time. \u00a0The more we know about a certain weather pattern that may deliver major weather threats to the region, we can then allow ourselves more time to prepare and plan for them. \u00a0One more point, this forecast is experimental, so I do recommend everyone to check out the official outlooks. \u00a0I&#8217;ve added several links everyone can check from a national perspective to our area. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">For official outlooks, please check out the following links<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">&#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weather.gov\/briefing\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Daily Weather Briefing<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">&#8211; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/US.NationalWeatherService.PHI.gov?sk=wall\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/US.NationalWeatherService.PHI.gov?sk=wall\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NJ Facebook<br \/>\n<\/span><\/a><\/strong>&#8211;\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a><\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">,<\/span><\/a><\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NWS_MountHo\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u00a0NJ Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Weather Threat Assessment Forecast<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><strong>Monday, April\u00a013th through Monday, April 27th<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Issued: Sunday Evening, April\u00a012th \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">5 Day Period (Monday, April\u00a013th through Friday, April\u00a017th)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/1_WTAF_PHL_20150412.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7557 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/1_WTAF_PHL_20150412-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"1_WTAF_PHL_20150412\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<em><br \/>\n<\/em><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under &#8220;Background Information&#8221;. \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This week is looking to be on the quiet side. \u00a0The one item we&#8217;ll need to monitor will be a cold approaching the area by Friday. \u00a0The setup may include some heavy rainfall, which may cause some flooding. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">In terms of the big picture upper air pattern, it favors ridging aloft over the Eastern US. \u00a0High pressure will dominate the area on Monday, but moves away as a cold front approaches the region on Tuesday. Nothing major is expected the cold front. \u00a0Then another high pressure system moves in for Wednesday and Thursday. \u00a0\u00a0There will be a cold front that will cross the region on Tuesday, but nothing major expected. \u00a0Late in the week, we&#8217;ll need to keep an eye on the next cold front that moves into the area on Friday and Saturday. \u00a0Ahead of the front, there maybe some heavy rainfall with it. The key will be how fast the front moves across the region. \u00a0The slower the movement, the higher the chance for some heavier rainfall. \u00a0Looks like a situation where high pressure off shore may slow down the front before it exits the coast next weekend. \u00a0National Weather Service has mentioned this in their discussion last night about the heavy rain threat, so its something to keep an eye on. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The only weather threat for this period will be on Friday where Excessive Rainfall is possible. Right now, I&#8217;ll note this as a possible threat with my confidence being medium. \u00a0I don&#8217;t think this weather threat looks to be major at this time and isolated locations may deal with flooding. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">6 to 10 Day Period (Saturday, April 18th through Wednesday, April 22nd)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2_WTAF_PHL_20150412.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7558 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2_WTAF_PHL_20150412-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"2_WTAF_PHL_20150412\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/3_WTAF_PHL_20150412.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7559 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/3_WTAF_PHL_20150412-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"3_WTAF_PHL_20150412\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><br \/>\n<\/em><strong>Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under &#8220;Background Information&#8221;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">An unsettled pattern is likely for this period. \u00a0Temperatures are expected to be close to average with on and off chances for precipitation. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The upper air pattern will favor a trough over the\u00a0Central US, which will head east and be over our area as we get into the 11 to 15 day range. \u00a0Temperatures will be near average, while precipitation be above average. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The two main weather threats we need to monitor will be excessive rainfall and severe weather. The position of the trough or dip in the jet stream is the key and it looks to be setting up over the central US. \u00a0Now based on that position, systems will pass to our west. \u00a0So, the opportunity may exist for some severe weather and excessive rainfall. \u00a0I&#8217;m favoring excessive rainfall versus severe weather in this time frame. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline; font-size: 14pt;\">8 to 14 Day Period (Thursday, April\u00a023rd through Monday, April 27th)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/4_WTAF_PHL_20150412.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7560 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/4_WTAF_PHL_20150412-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"4_WTAF_PHL_20150412\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/5_WTAF_PHL_20150412.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7561 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/5_WTAF_PHL_20150412-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"5_WTAF_PHL_20150412\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em><br \/>\n<\/em><strong>Note: Click on thumbnail image above to view in full. Also, for further details on table legends and forecast geographic location references, scroll down to the bottom of this blog entry under &#8220;Background Information&#8221;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Discussion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Opening Remarks<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">A continuation of unsettled weather pattern is likely for this period. \u00a0Temperatures are expected to be cooler\u00a0than average and precipitation still looks to be above average. Overall, doesn&#8217;t look like a mild period, but just unsettled. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Sensible Weather<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The upper air pattern will favor a trough over the Eastern US. \u00a0While the trough settles over the Eastern US, ridging setup\u00a0over the Western US. \u00a0Temperatures are expected to be below average, while precipitation is above average. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Weather Threats<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">The main weather threat we may have to contend with is excessive rainfall. \u00a0Right now, I&#8217;m moderately confident on the excessive rainfall, but not expected to be major. With regard to any severe weather threats, not expecting much based on where the trough will setup, which will be right over area area.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 36pt;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">X<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">************************************************************************************************************************************************<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Background Information<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">I am very excited to provide a new forecast product for the Philadelphia Area, which includes Southeastern Pennsylvania, South Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. \u00a0In here will be a new experimental product that I&#8217;ve produced for the Philadelphia Area. \u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Right now, I like to issue this product once a week, especially on Sundays. If time permits, I&#8217;ll issue a new forecast during the week.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">This forecast will aide pretty much everyone from Public, Emergency Management, SKYWARN, and RACES. The idea is to provide everyone with a forecast that gives them the needed lead time to prepare for significant hazardous.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Finally, below is further background on my forecast tables and geographic locations<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Table Legend<\/span><\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_CF_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Forecaster Confidence<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Severity Event Index<\/strong>:\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-size: 12pt;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Minor_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Minor<\/a>, <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Significant_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Significant<\/a>, <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Major_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Major<\/a>, <\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff; font-size: 12pt;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/WTAF_SI_Extreme_20150403.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">Extreme<\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Forecast Geographic Locations<\/strong><\/span>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Southeast Pennsylvania<\/strong>: Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, and Philadelphia<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>South Jersey<\/strong>: Burlington, Ocean, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Northeastern\u00a0Maryland<\/strong>: Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne&#8217;s, Caroline, and Talbot<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Delaware<\/strong>: New Castle, Kent, and Sussex<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Okay, the newly expanded Weather Threat Assessment Forecast is now online.  This experimental forecast product will include the Philadelphia Area, which includes Southeastern PA, South Jersey, Northeastern Maryland, and Delaware.  Typically, I publish these forecasts on Sunday evenings.  During the week, I&#8217;ll send brief updates out via twitter.  Plus, pass along official updates from the NWS.  Overall, the pattern the next two weeks will be up and down.  Right now, I&#8217;m not expecting major weather threats, but ones that look to be minor ones.  For the full package, check out the blog entry here&#8230; <\/p><p><a class=\"more-link btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2015\/04\/12\/wtaf-philadelphia-area-template-2\/\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-written-blog-apr-2015","item-wrap"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/EZWX-WTAF_Small.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7533"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7564,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7533\/revisions\/7564"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}