{"id":7381,"date":"2015-03-01T20:00:58","date_gmt":"2015-03-02T01:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=7381"},"modified":"2015-03-01T23:38:54","modified_gmt":"2015-03-02T04:38:54","slug":"camden-county-nj-skywarn-forecast-march-1-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2015\/03\/01\/camden-county-nj-skywarn-forecast-march-1-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Camden County, NJ SKYWARN Forecast (March 1, 2015)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Evening Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n

A wild week is in store for the county and be an active one. \u00a0We have two threats to contend with this week. \u00a0A flood threat for Wednesday and then a major winter weather event for Wednesday night into Thursday. \u00a0Then a cold blast again Thursday into Friday again. \u00a0Check out the details below. \u00a0I’ll keep everyone updated on these threats with new updates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beyond this week, the weather pattern still will favor below average temperatures.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Click on the number, which corresponds to the PowerPoint slide number.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Weather Threat Assessment Forecast<\/span><\/strong>
\nMonday, March 2nd\u00a0through Monday,\u00a0March 16th
\nIssued: Sunday Evening, March\u00a01st\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
5 Day Period
\nForecast
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n
6 to 10 Day<\/strong><\/span>
\nPeriod \u00a0Forecast\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n
11 to 15 Day
\nPeriod Forecast<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Pattern<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Pattern\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a01<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n5<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Note: Number indicates PowerPoint slide number<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As always with this experimental forecast product, due check back in the NWS official forecasts and official outlooks on any future weather threats that could impact our county.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Below are thumbnails that further describe what\u00a0Forecast Confidence<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Severity Index\u00a0<\/strong>are<\/span><\/p>\n


\nForecaster Confidence<\/span>
\n<\/strong>\"1_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140205\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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Severity Index<\/span>
\n\"2_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"3_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"4_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"5_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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My brief thoughts for each period….<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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5 Day Period (Monday, March 2nd\u00a0through Friday, March 6th)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

During this period, we have two things to be concerned with. \u00a0On Tuesday, low pressure thats moving from the Western US will track toward up to the Great Lakes. \u00a0As this low tracks in that direction, moisture will move into the area Tuesday afternoon, starting out as a mix of snow and sleet. \u00a0The snow and sleet will begin to change to some freezing rain, but will change over to all rain after midnight. The rain may be heavy at times overnight into Wednesday. \u00a0So, for the first part we have a wintry threat for late Tuesday into the evening, then a potential flood threat on Wednesday. \u00a0Temperatures on Wednesday will peak into the 50s, but then crash Wednesday night. \u00a0Now, things get really interesting Wednesday night into Thursday.<\/span><\/p>\n

As this cold front crosses the county on Wednesday night, it will then stall to the south and east, probably just offshore near the Middle Atlantic coast. \u00a0One of the reasons for the front will to stall is high pressure centered to the east of the front. \u00a0This may act as a wall and keep the front nearby. The critical part of this forecast is the placement of the front. \u00a0If the front is nearby, we’ll have waves of low pressure track along it. \u00a0Hence, heavy precipitation will be over our area. \u00a0The upper level dynamics and moisture setup looks very impressive, so a threat of a major snowfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday. \u00a0Snow\u00a0would end Thursday evening. \u00a0Right now, model some of the model guidance is indicating major snowfall of at least 6 inches or more. \u00a012z Euro run today came in with 6 to 8 inches and the latest 18z GFS shows 8 inch plus. \u00a0The idea here is they are showing heavy snow possible, but more importantly the idea of a front stalling and an overrunning setting up over our area. \u00a0Now other model guidance has the front stalling to the south. \u00a0So, we have to wait and see on how this event unfolds.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anyway, definitely a situation to keep a close eye on. \u00a0For now, my forecast confidence is medium on it being major a major event.<\/p>\n

Finally, almost forget to add this in. \u00a0Yet another arctic blast Thursday night into Friday again. \u00a0What a week this will be with weather changes. \u00a0Good grief..\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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6 to 10 Day Period (Saturday, March\u00a07th\u00a0through Wednesday, March 11th)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

For this period,\u00a0its looking to be a colder than average period temperature wise. \u00a0We may have to watch several clipper systems that may dive down. \u00a0Confidence is low, but its something to keep an eye on. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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11 to 15 Day Period (Thursday, March 12th through Monday, March 16th)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

For this period, we may see a moderation in temperatures, but may be facing a stormy period again, potentially favoring more winter weather. \u00a0Here’s a quick view of our telleconnection indices
\n– AO (Arctic Oscillation): Forecast to return back toward neutral
\n– NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation): Forecast to head toward negative
\n– PNA (Pacific North American Pattern): Forecast to head back to positive.<\/span><\/p>\n

What this all means is a ridge developing along the west coast (PNA), polar vortex may come back south \u00a0in Canada (AO), and ridge developing over Greenland (NAO). \u00a0This may favor more winter weather for this period. Temperatures would likely be below average and precipitation be above average.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, checking the ensembles, they do show moderation and perhaps a milder period. \u00a0Perhaps, a pattern change. \u00a0For now, I think its a period to watch for additional winter weather. \u00a0Forecast confidence for more winter weather is low. \u00a0I did indicate major winter weather event, based on the indices above, but at this time, low confidence. \u00a0We definitely have time, so more changes to follow. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

X<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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National Weather Service\u00a0<\/strong>Mount Holly, NJ
\n7 Day Forecast
\n(click on image and then enter your zip code)<\/strong><\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\"Click<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Check out the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S Hazard Outlook
\nby clicking here<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Storm Prediction Center<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>NJ Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a><\/strong>,<\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0NJ Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Background
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