{"id":7249,"date":"2014-08-24T22:05:59","date_gmt":"2014-08-25T02:05:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=7249"},"modified":"2014-08-24T22:10:02","modified_gmt":"2014-08-25T02:10:02","slug":"camden-county-nj-skywarn-forecast-august-24th-2014-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2014\/08\/24\/camden-county-nj-skywarn-forecast-august-24th-2014-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Camden County, NJ SKYWARN Forecast (August 24th, 2014 Update)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Evening Everyone,<\/span><\/p>\n

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Finally back to issues a new Weather Threat Assessment for Camden County this evening. \u00a0 Check out my discussion below for what I’m thinking for this time range. \u00a0Looks like summer will make a return this week with highs reach near 90 Tuesday through Thursday. \u00a0Then for Labor Day weekend, the heat returns again. \u00a0For any severe weather and flooding those threats appear low at this time. \u00a0Finally, Tropical Storm Cristobal doesn’t appear it will impact the county, so this is great news.<\/span><\/p>\n

As always with this experimental forecast product, due check back in the NWS official forecasts and outlooks on any future weather threats that could impact the county.<\/span>
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\nNew table format below. \u00a0Just click on the number, which corresponds to the PowerPoint slide number.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Weather Threat Assessment Forecast<\/span><\/strong>
\nMonday, August 25th through Monday, September 8th
\nIssued: Sunday Evening, August 24th<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
5 Day Period
\nForecast \u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n
6 to 10 Day<\/strong><\/span>
\n Period \u00a0Forecast\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n
11 to 15 Day
\nPeriod Forecast<\/strong><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Weather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Pattern<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Pattern\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWeather Threats<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a01<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n4<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n5<\/span><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Note: Number indicates PowerPoint slide number \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Below are thumbnails that further describe what\u00a0Forecast Confidence<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Severity Index\u00a0<\/strong>are<\/span><\/p>\n


\nForecaster Confidence<\/span>
\n<\/strong>\"1_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140205\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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Severity Index<\/span>
\n\"2_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"3_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"4_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a>\"5_WXSRO_5_FCST_5_PHL_20140605\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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My brief thoughts for each period….<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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5 Day Period (Monday, August 24th through Friday, August 29th)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The very first item I want to discuss is the latest Tropical Storm Cristobal. \u00a0The latest indications is that this system will not impact our county. \u00a0Based on the 5pm advisory, the forecast track takes it away from the East Coast. \u00a0By Wednesday, Cristobal will begin the process of moving rapidly out to see. \u00a0The strength of this system will likely reach hurricane strength. \u00a0The only impact will be felt along the Jersey shore where the surf will be up, but nothing major. \u00a0I did put in a low threat confidence until this system clears our latitude, but again, based on all the model guidance, the latest trend is to move\u00a0it away from our area. So, this is good news. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Now, in terms of the upper air pattern, what will keep Cristobal out to sea is upper level ridging that will develop over the Eastern US. \u00a0While this ridging sets up, the weather will begin to feel more summer like\u00a0as temperatures will begin to reach the upper 80s with some humidity. \u00a0So, it will feel pretty warm and humid between Tuesday and Thursday. I going with a high confidence that will have a nuisance type heat wave, meaning it will be warm, but not extreme. \u00a0For a more significant heat wave, temperatures would need to sore in to the 90s and heat index be around 100. \u00a0Right now, not seeing that in the model guidance. \u00a0If your outside doing work, take it easy and always drink plenty of fluids. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As far as any severe weather and flooding, I’m not forecasting any. \u00a0With the ridge building over the East Coast, that will pretty much put a cap on things. \u00a0Even with the ridging, there really isn’t a strong trigger to get our county bigger storms. \u00a0So, I didn’t get into issuing any threat level. \u00a0So, it should be quiet for severe weather. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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6 to 10 Day Period (Saturday, August 30th through Wednesday, September\u00a03rd)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This period will is looking more summer like. \u00a0Just checking the European model run for today and it shows temperatures getting into the 90s for Saturday and Sunday. \u00a0Even the GFS model shows that as well, but a bit cooler. \u00a0The upper air pattern for this time frame shows that the 500mb trough will setup over the central US. \u00a0It looks as though will be to the east of this feature. \u00a0So, it does favor some above average temperatures and even above average precip. Any time your east of the trough, you can get severe weather and above average temps. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the beginning of this period will likely have some excessive heat for the Labor Day weekend. \u00a0I’m going with a high confidence for this period. \u00a0At the same time, I have low confidence for severe weather and flooding. \u00a0We will likely get some cold fronts to drop down in our area, but right now my confidence level on it is low at this time. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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11 to 15 Day Period (Thursday,September\u00a04th through Monday, September 8th)<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This period will feature the trough still over the central US, but broader. \u00a0Some of the model guidance favors above average temperatures and precipitation for this period. \u00a0So, were going to see pulses of some excessive heat, more opportunity for cold fronts to move through our county, so the threat for some showers and thunderstorms look pretty good. \u00a0So, I’m going with a medium confidence level for severe weather, flooding and even excessive heat. \u00a0Right now, any tropical threat will be very low at this time. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So, thats pretty much it for the discussion this evening. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

X<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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National Weather Service\u00a0<\/strong>Mount Holly, NJ
\n7 Day Forecast
\n(click on image and then enter your zip code)<\/strong><\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\"Click<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n


\n<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Check out the Climate Prediction Center’s U.S Hazard Outlook
\nby clicking here<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Storm Prediction Center<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>NJ Facebook<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NWS Mount Holly<\/span><\/a><\/strong>,<\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0NJ Twitter<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Background
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