{"id":2577,"date":"2012-08-04T17:22:16","date_gmt":"2012-08-04T21:22:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=2577"},"modified":"2012-08-04T17:22:16","modified_gmt":"2012-08-04T21:22:16","slug":"long-range-weather-thoughts-winter-blocking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2012\/08\/04\/long-range-weather-thoughts-winter-blocking\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Weather Thoughts (Winter Blocking)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A thought concerning the prospects for winter blocking&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The June 2012 AO averaged -0.672 and the July AO has averaged +0.09 through July 30. Assuming the AO averages &lt; 0 for the summer (June-August) timeframe, odds would favor the AO&#8217;s averaging &lt; 0 for the upcoming winter (December-February).<\/p>\n<p>Since 1950, there were 38 cases during which the summer AO averaged &lt; 0. 26\/38 (68.4%) saw the winter AO also average &lt; 0.<\/p>\n<p>In cases when the summer AO averaged &lt; 0, a winter AO &lt; 0 was 1.4 times more likely than an AO &gt; 0 during El Ni\u00f1o events. Winter 2009-10 was the most recent El Ni\u00f1o case that saw a negative winter AO.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, during those 38 cases, a winter AO &gt; 0 was 2.9 times more likely than an AO &lt; 0 during a La Ni\u00f1a. Winter 2011-12 was the most recent La Ni\u00f1a case that saw a positive winter AO.<\/p>\n<p>In sum, if the summer 2012 AO averages &lt; 0 and the upcoming winter experiences an El Ni\u00f1o (or even neutral ENSO conditions), there should be more blocking than last winter. Moreover, a blocky winter would appear more likely than not. Nevertheless, things are not yet cast in stone. Such developments as early-season Siberian snow cover expansion could provide a hint as to how things will turn out during Winter 2012-13.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) A thought concerning the prospects for winter blocking&#8230; The June 2012 AO averaged -0.672 and the July AO has averaged +0.09 through July 30. Assuming the AO averages &lt; 0 for the summer (June-August) timeframe, odds would favor the AO&#8217;s averaging &lt; 0 for the upcoming winter (December-February). Since 1950, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p><a class=\"more-link btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2012\/08\/04\/long-range-weather-thoughts-winter-blocking\/\">Continue reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-jul-2012-written-blogs","item-wrap"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2577","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2577"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2577\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2578,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2577\/revisions\/2578"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}