{"id":2543,"date":"2012-07-29T17:55:31","date_gmt":"2012-07-29T21:55:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=2543"},"modified":"2012-07-29T17:55:31","modified_gmt":"2012-07-29T21:55:31","slug":"long-range-weather-forecast-july-2012","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2012\/07\/29\/long-range-weather-forecast-july-2012\/","title":{"rendered":"Long Range Weather Forecast (July 2012)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland)<\/strong><\/p>\n

July 2012 Forecast:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the likely emergence of an El Ni\u00f1o event in July, the month will likely be uncharacteristically warm. In fact, when one considers the likely ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.0\u00b0C or above, the warmth that appears likely will be exceptional.<\/p>\n

Key Assumptions:
\n\u2022 An El Ni\u00f1o event will develop in July
\n\u2022 The AO will likely be near neutral (with variability in negative and positive ranges)
\n\u2022 The PNA will likely be near neutral.<\/p>\n

The top analog was 2002.<\/p>\n

The charts on which my July idea is based are:<\/p>\n

Top Left: Analogs for July 2012
\nTop Right: July 2002
\nBottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for July
\nBottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend<\/p>\n

\"Posted<\/p>\n

In addition, if one considers the exceptionally warm spring (March-May 2012 ranked 1st in the CONUS) and warm June nationwide (a top 30 or warmer June appears likely) with ENSO Region 3.4 temperatures in the +27.25\u00b0C to +28.25\u00b0C range for June, one comes up with the following cases: 1934, 1936, 1977, 1994, 2006, and 2010. That situation has favored widespread heat in July, particularly in the Central Plains.<\/p>\n

\"Posted<\/p>\n

Factoring in the continued abnormal warmth in the Arctic, the analog situation of a large area of cool anomalies across Canada appears very unlikely. As a result, the magnitude of warmth could be even greater than what the analog cases suggest.<\/p>\n

Based on the prevalent conditions in the Arctic region, observed decadal trend, warm spring\/warm June cases, analogs, and CFSv2, my thoughts are as follows:<\/p>\n

– Most of North America will likely be warmer than normal.
\n– An area the Southern\/Central Plains and then eastward through the Great Lakes into the Southeast\/Mid-Atlantic\/parts of the Northeastern U.S. could be much warmer than normal
\n– Most of Canada will likely be warmer than normal. The most impressive warmth could be located in northernmost Canada and also southern Ontario (including the Toronto Metro Area)
\n– Cool anomalies are likely to be confined to the immediate U.S. West Coast and the Pacific coast of Canada<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Blog Written by Donald Sutherland) July 2012 Forecast: Despite the likely emergence of an El Ni\u00f1o event in July, the month will likely be uncharacteristically warm. In fact, when one considers the likely ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.0\u00b0C or above, the warmth that appears likely will be exceptional. Key Assumptions: \u2022 An El Ni\u00f1o … <\/p>\n

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