Hi Everyone,<\/p>\n
Here’s another addition of my Weather Model and Analog trends for the period Monday, April 16th through Friday, April 27th.\u00a0 This blog will have the same format as the Weather Pattern Review.\u00a0 What you’ll notice is that I put together several flash videos, where you can view a series of slides. The player below provides offers similar features such as YouTube videos.\u00a0 So, you have the freedom to pause the video and examine the analysis.\u00a0\u00a0 Its probably a good idea to enlarge the video\u00a0to see the entire presentation.\u00a0 So, let’s get started.\u00a0
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Upper Air<\/strong><\/span> Two Week Analog Forecast<\/span> Next, let’s check out the model ensemble trends.\u00a0\u00a0Model ensembles are becoming a very good tool in long range forecasting.\u00a0 Think of ensemble models as one that is a sum of individual model runs.\u00a0 The GFS and the Euro have their set of individual runs.\u00a0 One of the fewest sites out there and one that is great to check out is Allan Huffman’s website<\/a>.\u00a0 The ones he provides, which I really like to use are the 6 to 10\u00a0and 11 to 15 day range.\u00a0<\/p>\n Next, check out the flash videos.\u00a0\u00a0The two below model run trends for the 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 Day.\u00a0\u00a0On the right side of the video player, you can click on the arrow facing left (Related Videos).\u00a0 [hdplay playlistid=7 ]\u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0 Two Week Analog Forecast<\/span> 6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend (first video displayed)<\/span> [hdplay playlistid=9 ]\u00a0<\/p>\n Precipitation<\/strong><\/span> Two Week Analog Forecast<\/span> [hdplay playlistid=8 ]\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nIn this section, we’ll take a look at the projected upper air pattern for the next two weeks. What I did here was try doing an analog forecast.\u00a0This technique can provide clues to\u00a0long range forecasting.\u00a0This technique is\u00a0something extra versus just looking at what the\u00a0models may say.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n
\nThe first analysis is one that I like thank Donald Sutherland for helping me out.\u00a0 He posts over at American Weather.com <\/a>on medium range weather forecasts.\u00a0 He’s a weather hobbysts, but I can almost say, he’s a meteorologist.\u00a0 If you ever read his posts, I highly recommend you do.\u00a0 He is one of many that provide great posts on long range forecasts.\u00a0 So, the idea here and you’ll see this in the next several section is to come up with analog years based upon several key indices.\u00a0 The Climate Prediction Center<\/a> is one I access the data from.\u00a0
\nPredicted Indice values for this time period
\n– NAO<\/a> between 0 and +0.50
\n– PNA<\/a> between -1.00 and +0.25
\n– AO <\/a>between -0.25 and +1.25
\n– ENSO<\/a> between -0.4 and -1.0
\n
\n<\/span>So, I was able to build a composite on what maybe the predicted upper air.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0
\n-Experimental 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map Forecast<\/a><\/span>\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n6 to 10 Day Model Ensemble Trend (first video displayed)
\n<\/span>– ECMWF (European)\u00a0vs GFS (American)\u00a0Upper Air Anomaly Maps
\n11\u00a0to 15 Day Model Ensemble Trend (see second video in Related Videos list in player)<\/span>
\n– Operational GFS vs GFS Ensemble Upper Air Anomaly\u00a0Maps<\/p>\n
\nTemperatures<\/strong><\/span>
\nIn this section, we’ll take a look at projected temperatures for the next two weeks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nAs in the previous section, let’s take a look at the next two weeks.\u00a0
\n– Experimental Temperature Anomaly Analog Forecast\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n
\n– ECMWF (European)\u00a0vs GFS (American) 850mb Temperature Anomaly Maps
\n–\u00a0GFS\u00a0Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps
\n
\n<\/span>8 to 14 Day Model Ensemble Trend (see second video in Related Videos list player)
\n<\/span>–\u00a0GFS\u00a0Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps
\n– NAEFS <\/a>Temperature Probability Below or Above Average Maps<\/p>\n
\nIn this section, we’ll take a look at projected\u00a0precipitation\u00a0totals\u00a0for the next two weeks.<\/p>\n
\nPretty much the same approach here.\u00a0 Just a caution here, this is experimental and one that will be worked on.\u00a0
\n–Experimental Precipitation Total Anomaly Analog Forecast<\/a><\/p>\n
\n<\/span>6 to 10 Day Ensemble Model Trend (See video displayed below)<\/span>
\n– GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble Precipitation Total Maps
\n– NAEFS Precipitation Probability Below or Above Average Maps
\n
\n<\/span>See second video in Related Videos list in player
\n<\/span>11 to 15 Day Model Ensemble Trend <\/span>
\n– GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble Precipitation Total Day Maps
\n8 to 14 Day Model Ensemble Trend<\/span>
\n–\u00a0NAEFS Ensemble Precipitation Probability Maps<\/p>\n