Good Evening Everyone,<\/p>\n
Based on all the analyses I put together, here’s what I found… The pattern over\u00a0the US has been very mild to warm one for the Central and Eastern US.\u00a0 Severe weather continued to be\u00a0significant for the central and eastern\u00a0portions of the US.\u00a0 For areas in the Pacific Northwest and the Lower Mississippi Valley the pattern has brought excessive amount of precipitation.\u00a0 Therefore, these two locations\u00a0have a \u00a0higher risk for flooding since the ground\u00a0is saturated.\u00a0 These are some of the key themes that you will see from the images below.\u00a0 So, sit back, grab a snack and beverage and check out images below.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Upper Air Trends<\/span> This month the upper air pattern has favored record a Pacific Northwest trough and\u00a0significant ridging over the Eastern US.\u00a0 In terms of the sensible weather, record breaking warmth took place over the central and eastern US.\u00a0 In addition, this month an active Pacific Jet has helped\u00a0promote severe weather, especially over the Southern US.\u00a0 Also, quite a few damaging tornadoes.\u00a0 The next two maps, continued to show how the upper air pattern favored\u00a0the jet stream farther to the north near the US Canada border.\u00a0 Occasionally, jet would buckle and bring in\u00a0brief cold shots, but that would be it.\u00a0\u00a0As you look at the\u00a0 Winter 2011-12 upper air map, you can see how mild of a look it had.\u00a0 Even the Polar Vortex, which is a strong upper level low that directs the cold air, really didn’t budge.\u00a0 Just so many factors against a really cold and snowy winter for the US.\u00a0 Overseas in Russia and Europe, the pattern favored a severe winter pattern.\u00a0 \u00a0Significant blocking kept that trough in place over Europe, hence the rough winter season.\u00a0 Surface, Upper Air, and Storm Report Trends<\/span> Temperatures Trends<\/span> The theme here has been the record warmth.\u00a0 The past week really shows the peak of the mild to warm weather. Please note, that I didn’t get a chance to accurately type in the correct number of record high temperatures and high minimum temperatures.\u00a0 Let’s just say there were many records broken.. The next two maps really how the depth of the overall above average temperatures for high and lows.\u00a0 Precipitation Trends<\/span> – Record Rainfall and Snowfall Reports (Sun, Mar 18 \u2013 Sun, Mar 25) Two key developments in here is how dry its getting over in California and East Coast.\u00a0 It looks like for folks in Georgia north to New Jersey running behind.\u00a0 You can almost tell where the storm track has been of late..\u00a0 The Pacific Northwest and down near Texas and Ohio Valley.\u00a0
\nHere are some of the basics I have on this analyses.\u00a0 The 500mb anomaly map is an analysis that’s taking a look from 18,000 feet above the ground.\u00a0These anomaly maps help identify tendencies how ridges (high pressure) and troughs (low pressure formed. Think of ridges as regions of stable weather (i.e., dry, cold or hot regions) and troughs as regions of active weather (i.e., wet and stormy). The shades of yellow to dark reds indicate ridging while shades of blue indicate troughs. Once you see the ridges and troughs, you can sketch the placement of the jet stream.\u00a0 Although, that can be done by looking at 250mb or 300mb maps.\u00a0 Those are analyses that meteorologists will look for in jet stream placement.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n– 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Thu,\u00a0 Mar 1 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23)<\/a><\/p>\n
\n– 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Wed, Feb 1 \u2013 Wed, Feb 29)<\/a>
\n– 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map (Tue, Dec 20 \u2013 Thu,\u00a0Fri 23)<\/a><\/p>\n
\nCheck out these images below. Note the correlation on what we saw with the upper maps and now the surface maps. For the Storm Prediction Center maps, I sketched in the jet stream. Notice how busy its been for severe weather. One of the key players has been the effect on La Nina. La Nina typically has been one where in the Spring, the Pacific Jet can be so strong and dominant.\u00a0 Its a big player for severe weather.\u00a0 For the severe weather the southern\u00a0half of the US has been a hot spot for severe weather, thanks in part to an active Pacific Jet Stream.\u00a0 The conditions so far this year have been very ripe for severe weather, especially tornadoes.\u00a0
\n– Sea Level Pressure Anomaly Map (Wed, Feb 1 \u2013 Wed, Feb 29)
\n<\/a>– SPC Storm Report with Jet Stream Overlay (Wed, Feb 1 \u2013 Wed, Feb 29)<\/a>
\n– Sea Level Pressure Anomaly Map (Thu, Mar 1 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23)<\/a>
\nJust check out the numerous reports for March.\u00a0 So far this month, 200 tornadoes..
\n– SPC Storm Report with Jet Stream Overlay (Thu, Mar 1 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23)<\/a><\/p>\n
\nThe analysis below are anomaly maps. I really like to use these analyses to show me a signal or trend over the past several weeks and months. What you will see from the maps I put together was how above average its been for the past couple months.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n– Record Warmth (Sun, Mar 18 \u2013 Sun, Mar 25)<\/a>
\n– Record Cold (Sun, Mar 18 \u2013 Sun, Mar 25)<\/a><\/p>\n
\n– 30 Day Mean Anomalies (Wed, Feb 22, 2011 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23, 2012)<\/a>
\n– 90 Day Mean Anomalies (Sat, Dec\u00a024 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23)<\/a><\/p>\n
\nFinally, the last batch of images will show you precipitation trends. Notice here and the prior sections, I like to work from the past week to several months back. You\u2019ll notice I like to look over the River and Lake Flood stages. If the models are forecasting more rain for these areas, the high the risk for flooding. Just one of the many analyses you can take a look at\u2026.<\/p>\n
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\nPortions of the Lower Mississippi Valley really have had a lot of rainfall and its definitely an area of a higher risk for flooding.\u00a0
\n– River and Lake Flood Stages (Sun, Mar 25)
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\n– 30 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Thu, Feb\u00a023 \u2013 Fri,\u00a0Mar 23)<\/a>
\n– 90 Day Mean Total Anomalies (Sun, Dec 25 \u2013 Fri, Mar 23)<\/a><\/p>\n
\n– Year Mean Total Anomalies (Sun, Jan 1 – Fri,\u00a0Mar 23, 2012)
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\nThe worst areas have drought conditions continue to be over extreme southeast Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida.\u00a0
\n– Precip Need to End Drought (Week Ending March 17)<\/a><\/p>\n