Hi Everyone,<\/p>\n
I’m very excited to bring you the Weather Model and Analog Trends blog. As I did in the blog back on Tuesday, this one will take an extensive look into the next two weeks.\u00a0 The idea here is to show a past image, analog map, and a series of model runs that are animated gifs.\u00a0 The idea is to give one a sense of what the next two weeks hold for the US.\u00a0 What type of pattern in terms of where will the trough or ridge setup, who’s going to receive below or above average temperatures and precipitation.\u00a0 What clues do we see in terms of hazardous weather.<\/p>\n
One of the most fascinating parts in this blog is the attempt to use a technique in long range forecasting and that is analog maps.\u00a0 What years in the past could the models be hinting at.\u00a0 Obviously, its very challenging, but also very exciting, because they can provide big clues and help with seeing if the models are on the right path.\u00a0 So, let’s get started..<\/p>\n
Since I’m a bit short on time, I’ll be listing the images only.\u00a0 In the future, I’ll be able to provide some thoughts, but wanted to get this out tonight with the images…<\/p>\n
For reference, below are the Week 1 and Week 2 periods
\n*Week 1: Mon,\u00a0Apr 2 through Sun,\u00a0Apr 8
\n*Week 2: Mon,\u00a0Apr\u00a09 through Fri, Apr 13<\/p>\n
Upper Air<\/span> Temperatures<\/span> Precipitation<\/span>
\nStill Images
\n– Initial 500mb Map<\/a>\u00a0(Sun, Mar 25)
\n–Experimental 500mb Upper Air Height Anomaly Map Forecast<\/a>\u00a0(Entire Period)
\nAnimated Slides
\n– Week 1: Euro Ensemble\u00a0vs GFS Ensemble\u00a06 to 10 Day Maps
\n<\/a>– Week 2: Operational GFS vs GFS Ensemble 11 to 15 Day Maps<\/a><\/p>\n
\nStill Images
\n– Past Temperature Anomaly Map (7 Day Mean) <\/a>
\n– Experimental Temperature Anomaly Analog Foreacst (Entire Period)<\/a>
\nAnimated Slides
\n–Week 1: Euro Ensemble vs GFS Ensemble\u00a06 to 10 Day Ensemble 850mb Anomaly Maps<\/a>
\n– Week 1: GFS Ensemble\u00a06 to 10 Day Surface Anomaly Maps<\/a>
\n– Week 2: GFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day\u00a0Surface Anomaly Maps
\n<\/a>– Week 2: NAEFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day Probability Maps<\/a><\/p>\n
\nStill Images
\n– Past Precipitation Total Anomalies Map (7 Day Mean)<\/a>
\n– Experimental Precipitation Total Anomaly Analog Forecast (Entire Period)
\n<\/a>Animated Slides
\n– Week1: GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Total Maps<\/a>
\n– Week 1: NAEFS Ensemble 6 to 10 Day Probability Maps<\/a>
\n– Week 2: GFS Operational vs GFS Ensemble 11 to 15 Day Maps
\n<\/a>– Week 2: NAEFS Ensemble 8 to 14 Day Probability Maps<\/a><\/p>\n