{"id":1112,"date":"2011-12-27T23:00:14","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T04:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ezweather.com\/myblog\/?p=1112"},"modified":"2012-01-08T01:40:59","modified_gmt":"2012-01-08T06:40:59","slug":"us-weather-hazards-outlook-mon-dec-12-to-fri-dec-23-2011","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ezweather.com\/myblog\/2011\/12\/27\/us-weather-hazards-outlook-mon-dec-12-to-fri-dec-23-2011\/","title":{"rendered":"US Weather Hazards Outlook (Fri, Dec 30 to Tue, Jan 10, 2012)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Evening Everyone,<\/p>\n

Each week, I’m going to provide this type of blog once per week.\u00a0 One of the products I like to follow\u00a0from the Climate Prediction Center is the US Hazards Asessment.\u00a0 They offer a view of some of the weather hazards that could impact certain portions of the US.\u00a0 In this blog, I like to share with you some\u00a0past and future weather data.\u00a0\u00a0At the end of the blog you can check out CPC’s outlook on potential weather hazards for the US.<\/p>\n

Weather Pattern Review – Past Surface and Upper Air Trends
\n– Thursday, December\u00a01\u00a0through\u00a0Saturday, December\u00a024
\n<\/strong>\u00a0\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/strong>
\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 
\nNotice how much ridging was was setting up near the Pacific Northwest.\u00a0 There was a lot of height falls over Alaska, Canada and Greenland.\u00a0 The opposite occurred over the US.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Weather Pattern Review – Past Temperature and Precipitation Trends
\n– Friday, November\u00a025 through Monday, December\u00a026
\n\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Check out the above average temperatures over the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and the Eastern US.\u00a0 Precipitation Total anomalies were showing up over Eastern portions of the US.\u00a0 Notice the Pacific Northwest 3 to 6 inches below average for this time period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

8 to 10 Day Upper Air Outlook (Euro vs GFS)
\n– Tuesday,\u00a0January\u00a03 through Friday,\u00a0January\u00a06<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0
\nThe big development today was what the Euro was showing for the East Coast.\u00a0 The GFS not as enthusiastic.\u00a0 But signals are there for a pattern changes as you will see below.\u00a0 It appears that a colder pattern could be on the way for the Eastern US and perhaps the threat for wintry weather.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NWS 6 to 10 Day Outlook
\n– Monday,\u00a0January\u00a02 through Friday,\u00a0January 6<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This time frame, NCEP going with a ridge over the Western US and a trough over the Eastern US.\u00a0 Notice the temperature and precipitation outlooks.\u00a0 Only small portions of the country look for above average precipitation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

NWS\u00a08 to 14 Day Outlook
\n– Friday,\u00a0January\u00a06 through Tuesday,\u00a0January 10
\n\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

For the longer range, if you see what this outlook shows, you would think a wamer than average temperatures. For precioitation outlook, most of the country would be below average..<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Telleconnection Indice Forecasts
\n– Tuesday, December\u00a027 through Thursday,\u00a0January 12<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What you see with the NAO, NAO West and the AO will be trending toward the negative side.\u00a0 This favors\u00a0the potential for a pattern over the Eastern US to a more colder period and perhaps an active period for wintry weather.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The final analyses is the MJO.\u00a0 I think based on what the\u00a0GFS and Euro shows here is that Phase 7 could be possible.\u00a0 Check out the 500mb anomaly plot.\u00a0 This analyses was provided by Allan Huffman.\u00a0 Check out this link to see all these correlations.\u00a0 Just great stuff he developed.\u00a0 But this Phase 7 chart for January favors that trough over the Eastern US and that threat for wintry weather.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/raleighwx.americanwx.com\/MJO.html<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0*******************************************************************************<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK<\/strong>
\nNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD<\/strong>
\n300 PM EST DECEMBER\u00a027 2011<\/strong><\/p>\n

SYNOPSIS<\/span>: A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVE EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING FLORIDA. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS ASSESSMENT PERIOD, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN EXPANSION OF BELOW
\nNORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN STATES, WHILE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS WETTER THAN NORMAL.<\/p>\n

HAZARDS<\/span><\/p>\n